By Steve Neavling
Every time Donald Trump is indicted, he claims he gets a bump in the polls.
But a new survey by Politico/Ipsos suggests many Americans – most notably Independents – believe the former president is guilty, despite his repeated argument that he’s the target of “a witch hunt.”
The poll found that 51% of Americans believe he is guilty in the 2020 election subversion case. Among Independents, 53% think he’s guilty, while 88% of Democrats do. Only 14% of Republicans believe he committed the crimes.
Just 20% of Independents and 2% of Democrats think Trump is innocent. The rest said they don’t know.
Trump’s legal team is trying to delay the trial for the election case until April 2026. Federal prosecutors want the trial to begin on Jan. 2, 2024 – 11 months before the general election.
About 63% of Independents and 89% of Democrats believe the trial should take place before the presidential election. Only 14% of Independents and 3% of Democrats believe the election should be delayed until after the election. The rest – 22% of Independents – said they don’t know.
If he is convicted in the election subversion case, the poll suggests Trump’schances of winning are much slimmer. About a third of respondents said they would be less likely to vote for him if he’s convicted, compared to 13% who said they would be more likely to vote for him.
About half the respondents, including 51% of Independents, believe Trump should go to prison if he’s convicted in the election case. About 16% said he should be sentenced to probation, 12% said he should only be fined, and 18% said he should not be penalized.
No matter how you look at the polls, one thing is clear: The prosecutions of Trump are not helping his odds of being elected.
Although Trump is still the clear frontrunner in the primary election, he is trailing in a general election matchup.
